PPP项目对我国地方政府财政压力的影响研究——基于2015-2016省级面板数据的经验证据摘要随着近几年来PPP项目在我国的广泛实施和开展，政府决策层和学界越来越关心PPP项目对社会经济方面产生的效果，其中之一便是PPP项目对地方政府财政压力的影响。本文在总结现有文献的基础上首先简单讨论了PPP的定义和特点，定性分析了地方政府财政压力的成因和PPP项目中政府的支出责任。接下来，本文基于PPP综合信息平台的数据，按照省市、区域、行业、回报机制四种分类方法，对我国的PPP项目数量和投资额进行了细致的梳理和统计描述。第三，本文利用2015-2016省级面板数据讨论了PPP项目对我国地方政府财政压力的作用，研究发现PPP项目的实施在短期内反而增加了我国地方政府的财政支出缺口。本文潜在的政策含义是，政府需要警惕PPP项目投资过热的趋势，严守10%的财政可承受能力的红线。关键词：PPP，财政压力，投资规模，省级面板数据TheImpactofPPPProjectontheFinancialPressureofLocalGovernmentsinChina——BasedonEmpiricalEvidencefrom2015-2016ProvincialPanelDataAbstractWiththeextensiveimplementationanddevelopmentofPPPprojectsinChinainrecentyears,governmentdecision-makingandacademiccirclesareincreasinglyconcernedabouttheeffectsofPPPprojectsonsocialandeconomicaspects.OneofthemistheimpactofPPPprojectsonlocalgovernmentfinancialpressure.ThispaperfirstbrieflydiscussesthedefinitionandcharacteristicsofPPPonthebasisofsummarizingtheexistingliterature,andqualitativelyanalyzesthecausesoflocalgovernmentfinancialpressureandgovernmentexpenditureresponsibilitiesinPPPprojects.Then,basedonthedataofthePPPintegratedinformationplatform,thispapermeticulouslycombsandstatisticallydescribesthenumberofPPPprojectsinChinaandtheamountofinvestmentaccordingtofourclassificationmethods:provincial,regional,industry,andrewardmechanisms.Thirdly,thispaperusesthe2015-2016provincialpaneldatatodiscusstheroleofPPPprojectsinthefiscalpressuresoflocalgovernmentsinChina.ThestudyfindsthattheimplementationofPPPprojectshasincreasedthefiscalexpendituregapoflocalgovernmentsinChinaintheshortterm.ThepotentialpolicyimplicationofthispaperisthatthegovernmentneedstobealerttotheoverheatedinvestmentinPPPprojectsandstrictlyadheretotheredlineof10%offiscalaffordability.Keywords:PPPmodel,financialpressure,investmentscale,provincialpaneldata目录一、序言······················································1二、文献综述··················································2（一）PPP模式起源、特性的理论研究···························2（二）PPP模式在我国实施的可行性研究·······