影响私人汽车拥有量的计量分析随着我国经济实力的增强，人民生活水平的提高，私人汽车的需求量也是逐年增加。尤其是2002年以来，私人购车占整个市场的份额迅速提升，汽车市场进入私人购车阶段。根据国际通用车价和国内生产总值增长比较系数计算，未来5~10年中国有购车能力的人口可达5亿，约1.5亿个家庭。未来20年中国有望成为全球第一大汽车市场。正因为私人汽车逐渐占据了汽车消费市场的主导地位，并直接反映了整个汽车行业的现状，所以私人汽车消费市场越来越吸引人们的关注。为了分析私人汽车拥有量的具体影响因素，我选取了一下几个变量进行分析：Y表示私人汽车拥有量，，X1表示城镇人口数（万人），X2表示城镇家庭人均可支配收入，X3表示全国汽车产量（万辆），X4表示全国公路里程（万公里），同时预计城镇人口数与私人汽车拥有量呈正相关，城镇家庭人均可支配收入、全国汽车产量及全国公路里程都与私人汽车拥有量呈正相关。表1私人汽车拥有量相关因素的原始数据YX1X2X3X4198828.4900025094.00739.100043.7200094.24000198934.7100026366.00899.600036.9800096.28000199042.2900027674.001002.20047.1800098.22000199160.4200028661.001181.40064.4700099.96000199273.1200029540.001375.70058.35000101.4300199381.6200030195.001510.20051.40000102.8300199496.0400031203.001700.60071.42000104.11001995118.200032175.002026.600106.6700105.67001996155.770033173.002577.400129.8500108.35001997205.420034169.003496.200136.6900111.78001998249.960035174.004283.000145.2700115.70001999289.670037304.004838.900147.5200118.58002000358.360039449.005160.300158.2500122.64002001423.700041608.005425.100163.0000127.90002002533.900043748.005854.000183.2000135.20002003625.300045906.006280.000207.0000140.30002004770.800048064.006859.600234.2000169.80002005969.000050212.007702.800325.1000176.500020061219.20052376.008472.200444.4000181.000020071481.70054283.009421.600509.1000187.100020081848.10056212.0010493.00570.5000334.500020092333.30057706.0011759.50727.9000345.700020102876.20059379.0013785.80888.9000358.4000基于上述数据，建立的多元线形回归模型可以表示为：Y=β0+β1X1+β2X2+β3X3+β4X4+υ根据表1中的数据，利用Eviews对上述所设计的模型进行最小二乘估计。结果为：表2最小二乘估计结果DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:05/31/12Time:14:42Sample:19882010Includedobservations:23VariableCoefficietStd.Errort-StatisticProb.X10.0028750.0074210.3873720.7030X20.0031860.0300190.1061210.9167X32.5403210.2903488.7492280.0000X42.0191550.5632733.5846820.0021C-396.8791191.8043-2.0691870.0532R-squared0.995198Meandependentvar646.7509AdjustedR-squared0.994130S.D.dependentvar796.7598S.E.ofregression61.04194Akaikeinfocriterion11.25066Sumsquaredres