盐城师范学院毕业论文盐城师范学院毕业论文2016－2017学年度张家港港口物流发展对策研究学生姓名周佳璐学院商学院专业物流管理（国际物流）班级13（2）学号13318431指导教师霍伟伟2017年5月20日张家港港口物流发展对策研究摘要近年来，长三角区域经济持续增长，长江沿岸口群也随之迅速发展。港口总体水平不断提高，形成了张家港港、江阴港、常熟港、上海港等部分港口相互竞争，相互促进的新形式。现代化的港口不仅仅是从事于海陆运输中转，更是服务于国际贸易的全球运输网络中枢，是推动全球经济发展的重要节点。在这样严峻多变的生存发展环境下，张家港港口物流业的定位和发展意义重大。本文首先对张家港港口现有的资源和环境进行了分析，分析发现，张家港港口的现有资源和环境利于港口物流的进一步发展，但还存在着航线密度低、码头泊位等级低、物流服务体系建设落后等阻碍。继而本文运用灰色预测法科学预测张家港港口未来货物吞吐量，进一步了解张家港港口的货物吞吐能力。根据预测结果和港口现状做出了对应的对策措施。【关键词】张家港港口;港口物流;灰色预测法;对策措施StudyonDevelopmentCountermeasuresofZhangjiagangportlogisticsAbstractInrecentyears,theYangtzeRiverDeltaregion'seconomicgrowthhascontinued,andtheYangtzeRiverEstuarygrouphasalsodevelopedrapidly.Theoverallleveloftheporthasbeencontinuouslyimproved,forminganewformofcompetitionandmutualpromotionbetweenZhangjiagangport,Jiangyinport,ChangshuportandShanghaiport.Themodernportisnotonlyengagedinlandseatransportation,butalsoservesasthehuboftheglobaltransportationnetworkforinternationaltrade.Itisalsoanimportantnodetopromotetheglobaleconomicdevelopment.Insuchasevereandchangeableenvironmentofexistenceanddevelopment,theorientationanddevelopmentofZhangjiagangportlogisticsindustryisofgreatsignificance.Firstly,theportofZhangjiagangexistingresourcesandenvironmentareanalyzed.TheanalysisfoundthattheexistingresourcesandtheenvironmentconducivetothefurtherdevelopmentoftheportofZhangjiagangportlogistics,buttherearealsoroutesoflowdensity,lowlevelofberthandlogisticsservicesystemconstructionlagsbehindobstacles.Then,thispaperusesgreyforecastingmethodtopredictthefuturecargothroughputofZhangjiagangport,andfurtherunderstandthecargohandlingcapacityofZhangjiagangport.Accordingtothepredictionresultsandportstatus,correspondingcountermeasuresareproposed.[Keywords]Zhangjiagangport;portlogistics;greyforecastingmethod;countermeasures目录TOC\o"1-2"\h\z\uHYPERLINK\l"_Toc482882048"一、绪论PAGEREF_Toc482882048\h1HYPERLINK\l"_Toc482882049"（一）研究背景，目的与意义PAGEREF_Toc482882049\h1HYPERLINK\l"_Toc